AccuWeather Global Weather Center – Jan. 31, 2025 – Before Punxsutawney Phil predicts a long winter or an early spring at Groundhog Day this weekend, AccuWeather expert meteorologists are offering an early look at the weather trends expected in February.
Back-to-back blasts of bitterly cold Arctic air were felt across much of the central and eastern U.S., and a winter storm brought rare snow and ice accumulations to the Gulf Coast and Southeast. AccuWeather expert meteorologists say these factors contributed to what will likely verify as the lowest overall January temperatures across America since 2011, which AccuWeather correctly predicted could happen on Dec. 30.
With the snow and ice long gone after the Southern winter storm, AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok says milder weather has arrived across much of the southern U.S.
“The transition to springlike weather and warmer air is happening earlier than the historical average from the southern Plains to the Gulf Coast,” Pastelok said. “There may be some temporary setbacks, but warm air is returning to Florida and the Gulf Coast states.”
Pastelok says colder winter weather will hold its grip on much of the interior Northeast and Great Lakes heading into February.
“The transition to springlike weather will be sluggish from the Northeast to the Great Lakes and the northern Plains. We expect some back-and-forth between mild stretches and blasts of colder and wintry weather over the next few weeks,” Pastelok explained. “We still have opportunities for snow and ice over the next few weeks in areas that have not seen much snow this winter, like the Midwest. More snow is expected for parts of the Northeast, Great Lakes and the Midwest going forward.”
Despite rounds of wintry weather and a historic snowstorm in the South this month, Pastelok says drought conditions are expanding across much of the country.
“Farmers never like to see drought conditions heading into the spring planting months. Roughly 62 percent of the country is facing drought conditions right now, compared to 38 percent at this time last year. That’s a significant difference,” Pastelok said. “The drought conditions in the northern Plains have been happening since the fall. Drought is expanding in the Southwest as well. The Southwest has missed out on most of the rain and storms so far this winter.”
Pastelok says a pattern change will shift the storm track across the country next month.
“There will be a big pattern change in early February. The jet stream will start bringing storms to the Northwest. We expect quite a bit of rain and mountain snow in Northern California and Oregon through next week. The shift in the jet stream will allow milder air to return to much of the Southeast and south-central U.S.,” Pastelok said. “We expect a front to linger at times between the cold in the north and the mild air to the south. Storms coming from out of the west will track along the front and move across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast.”
The AccuWeather 2025 U.S. Spring Forecast will be released on Feb. 5.
Click here to watch the live zoom media briefing + Q&A with AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok on Feb. 5 at 8:30 a.m. EST.
History of Groundhog Day
The small community of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, comes alive every Feb. 2 to celebrate the tradition of Groundhog Day, which dates back to 1887.
AccuWeather is currently forecasting cloudy skies and AccuWeather RealFeel® temperatures in the 20s Sunday morning at Gobblers Knob, Pennsylvania.
If Punxsutawney Phil emerges from his burrow and sees his shadow, it signifies six more weeks of winter. If his shadow is nowhere to be found, Phil has predicted an early spring.
The tradition originated in Punxsutawney, a small town of German ancestry, roughly 80 miles northeast of Pittsburgh. The Germans used a hedgehog to let them know if spring would arrive early or if winter would go on as normal.
The holiday is rooted in the ancient Christian Candlemas Day tradition. Clergymen would distribute and bless candles in the dark of winter. The Romans started the tradition, and the Germans took the concept further by choosing an animal to predict the weather. The custom continued as settlers arrived in Pennsylvania.
In 1887, a local newspaper editor declared Phil, whose full title is “Punxsutawney Phil, Seer of Seers, Sage of Sages, Prognosticator of Prognosticators and Weather Prophet Extraordinary,” to be the United States’ only true weather-forecasting groundhog.
The popular tradition was made even more famous with the release of the film “Groundhog Day” in 1993.
A group of 15 individuals comprise the Inner Circle, a Punxsutawney-based group that carries on the annual Groundhog Day tradition. They’re responsible for planning the events and ensuring Phil is cared for and fed.
When Phil is not a Gobblers Knob for Groundhog Day festivities, he calls the Punxsutawney Memorial Library home.
Punxsutawney Phil is not the only famous groundhog. At least six other states have their own weather prognosticators.
